Film Your Hospital the anatomy of a COVID-19 conspiracy theory
Shutterstock/MartaDMIt’s widely believed that social media conspiracy theories are driven by malicious and anonymous “bots” set up by shadowy third parties. But my new research – which examined an extremely successful COVID-19 conspiracy theory – has shown that ordinary citizen accounts can be just as culpable when it comes to spreading dangerous lies and misinformation.
The pandemic has fuelled
at least ten conspiracy theories this year. Some linked the spread of the disease to the 5G network, leading to phone masts being vandalised. Others argued that COVID-19 was a biological weapon. Research has shown that conspiracy theories could contribute to people ignoring social distancing rules.
The #FilmYourHospital movement was one such theory. It encouraged people to record videos of themselves in seemingly empty, or less-than-crowded, hospitals to prove the pandemic is a hoax. Many videos showing empty corridors and wards were shared.
Our research sought to identify the drivers of the conspiracy and examine whether the accounts that propelled it in April 2020 were bots or real people.
Scale of the conspiracy
The 5G conspiracy attracted 6,556 Twitter users over the course of a single week. The #FilmYourHospital conspiracy was much larger than 5G, with a total of 22,785 tweets sent over a seven day period by 11,333 users. It also had strong international backing.
Graph shows how the conspiracy theory discussion was broken up into different groups.
Wasim Ahmed, Author provided
The visualisation above shows each Twitter user as a small circle and the overall discussion is clustered into a number of different groups. These groups are formed based on how users were mentioning and re-tweeting each other.
The visualisation highlights how the three largest groups were responsible for spreading the conspiracy the furthest. For instance, the discussion in groups one and two was centred around a single tweet that was highly re-tweeted. The tweet suggested the public were being misled and that hospitals were not busy or overrun – as had been reported by the mainstream media. The tweet then requested other users to film their hospitals using the hashtag so that it could become a trending topic. The graphic shows the reach and size of these groups.
Where are the bots?
We used Botometer to detect bots that draw on a machine learning algorithm. The tool calculates a score where low scores indicate human behaviour and a high score indicates a bot. Botometer works by extracting various features from an account such as its profile, friends, social network, patterns in temporal activity, language and sentiment. Our study took a 10% systematic representative sample of users to run through Botometer.
Our results indicated that the rate of automated accounts was likely to be low. We used the raw scores from Botometer to attach a probability label of whether the account was likely to be a bot. These ranged from very low, low, low-medium and high probability.
At best, only 9.2% of the sample that we looked at resembled highly suspicious account behaviour or bots. That means over 90% of accounts we examined were probably genuine.
Figure shows how many of the accounts were suspicious or bot-like.
Wasim Ahmed, Author provided
Interestingly, we also found that deleted accounts and automated accounts contained keywords such as “Trump” and “Make America Great Again” in their user-bios. Around the same time President Donald Trump had been in disagreement with scientific advisers on when to lift lockdown rules.
Where did it come from?
When we examined the most influential users connected to the hashtag we found that the conspiracy theory was driven by influential conservative politicians as well as far-right political activists. Scholars have noted how the far right has been exploiting the pandemic. For example, some of have set up channels on Telegram, a cloud-based instant messaging service, to discuss COVID-19 and have amplified disinformation.
But once the conspiracy theory began to generate attention it was sustained by ordinary citizens. The campaign also appeared to be supported and driven by pro-Trump Twitter accounts and our research found that some accounts that behaved like “bots” and deleted accounts tended to be pro-Trump. It is important to note that not all accounts that behave like bots are bots, as there might be users who are highly active who could receive a high score. And, conversely, not all bots are harmful as some have been set up for legitimate purposes.
Twitter users frequently shared YouTube videos in support of the theory and YouTube was an influential source.
Can they be stopped?
Social media organisations can monitor for suspicious accounts and content and if they violate the terms of service, the content should be removed quickly. Twitter experimented with attaching warning labels on tweets. This was initially unsuccessful because Twitter accidentally mislabelled some tweets, which might have inadvertently pushed conspiracies further. But if they manage to put together a better labelling technique this could be an effective method.
Conspiracies can also be countered by providing trustworthy information, delivered from public health authorities as well as popular culture “influencers”. For instance, Oldham City Council in the UK, enlisted the help of actor James Buckley – famous for his role as Jay in the E4 sitcom The Inbetweeners – to spread public health messages.
And other research highlights that explaining flawed arguments and describing scientific consensus may help reduce the effect of misinformation.. Sadly, no matter what procedures and steps are put in place, there will always be people who will believe in conspiracies. The onus must be on the platforms to make sure these theories are not so easily spread. Wasim Ahmed does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Author: Wasim Ahmed, Lecturer in Digital Business, Newcastle University
Date: 2020-10-15
URL: https://theconversation.com/film-your-hospital-the-anatomy-of-a-covid-19-conspiracy-theory-147948
theconversation.com
| Water on the Moon: research unveils its type and abundance – boosting exploration plans (2020-10-26) | NASA JSC The Moon was for a long time considered to be bone dry with analyses of returned lunar samples from the Apollo missions showing only trace amounts of water These traces were in fact believed to be due to contamination on Earth But over the past two decades re-analyses of lunar samples observations by spacecraft missions and theoretical modelling have proved this initial assessment to be w.. |
| How we discovered three new species of penguin in the Southern Ocean (2020-11-05) | P poncetii in South Georgia Gemma ClucasWhen you think of scientists discovering new species you might imagine searching the Amazon rainforest for new types of insect or the depths of the ocean for undiscovered crustaceans But these days most new species we discover are found hiding in plain sight Such hidden species can look so similar to their relatives that they arent obviously a different sp.. |
| Coronavirus: superspreading events could help make COVID-19 endemic (2020-10-14) | Dance classes have been implicated as potential superspreading events dorglao/ShutterstockThe COVID-19 coronavirus is not your average virus During the pandemic it has become increasingly clear that averages do not apply in understanding the paths the virus takes or when or where it attacks What some scientists and specialists in infectious diseases may say in the morning will be ridiculed before .. |
| Life on Earth: why we may have the Moon’s now defunct magnetic field to thank for it (2020-10-15) | Photo of a nearly full Moon shining brightly on the Earths atmosphere taken from the International Space Station NASAThe habitability of a planet depends on many factors One is the existence of a strong and long-lived magnetic field These fields are generated thousands of kilometres below the planets surface in its liquid core and extend far into space shielding the atmosphere from harmful solar r.. |
| Spotting liars is hard – but our new method is effective and ethical (2020-12-03) | Guilty? The length of your answer may give it away Motortion Films/ShutterstockMost people lie occasionally The lies are often trivial and essentially inconsequential such as pretending to like a tasteless gift But in other contexts deception is more serious and can have harmful effects on criminal justice From a societal perspective such lying is better detected than ignored and tolerated Unfortu.. |
| Coronavirus ‘excess deaths’: why England and Wales have been hardest hit in Europe – new study (2020-10-14) | Piccadilly Circus subway underground station is emptier than usual Matteo Roma/ShutterstockTo get through the COVID-19 pandemic we need good information One hugely important statistic is how many people have died from the disease in various countries But its notoriously difficult to compare deaths in this way each nation reports and counts deaths due to COVID-19 differently A more promising approa.. |
| Mars colony: how to make breathable air and fuel from brine – new research (2020-11-30) | Artists concept of astronauts and human habitats on Mars NASANASA is planning to land a crew on the Moon by 2024 and then onward to Mars possibly in the 2030s One day we will have permanently crewed bases on both worlds Unlike the initial short-stay visits long-term bases will have to be self sufficient in as many essentials as possible A lot of research has gone into preparing for In Situ Resourc.. |
| Rogue planets: hunting the galaxy’s most mysterious worlds (2020-11-09) | An artists impression of a gravitational micro-lensing event by a free-floating planet JanSkowron/Astronomical Observatory University of WarsawMost known planets orbit a star These planets including Earth benefit from the stars warmth and light And it is the light emitted from these stars which makes it possible for us to see them But there are also invisible planets hidden from our gaze which flo.. |
| How to stay socially connected as lockdown returns - according to science (2020-10-22) | giuseppelombardo/ShutterstockAfter a fairly relaxed summer more and more places are bringing back tighter restrictions in response to rising COVID-19 cases with some even returning to full or near-full lockdowns We all know that social distancing makes sense: the fewer people we meet and the further away from them we stay the less likely we are to get ill or to spread the virus But sticking to soc.. |
| Did prehistoric women hunt? New research suggests so (2020-11-04) | Artist impression of a prehistoric woman hunting Matthew Verdolivo UC Davis IET Academic Technology ServicesFor a long time it was assumed that hunting in prehistoric societies was primarily carried out by men Now a new study adds to a body of evidence challenging this idea The research reports the discovery of a female body buried alongside hunting tools in the Americas some 9000 years ago The wo.. |
